Methodology

Know what the score means.

Public definitions, model inputs, interpretation scales, limitations, and version history.

01 / Core models

AQ Core model family

AstravaQuant publishes systematic state indicators across crypto trend and mortgage-rate pressure. The current public release identifies the input universe, aggregation layer, timeframe, output range, and interpretation. Exact transformations and weights are not disclosed in v0.1.

MTPI

Five-day medium-term crypto trend built from total crypto market capitalization and TOTAL2, the crypto market excluding Bitcoin.

LTPI

Weekly long-term crypto trend built from total crypto market capitalization and the Bitcoin chart.

NSPI

Aggregate regime score combining MTPI and LTPI into one connected crypto state.

MRPI

Weekly Mortgage Rate Pressure Index anchored to the 10-year Treasury backdrop. It is interpreted as tightening versus easing.

02 / Interpretation

Two different scales

Crypto regime scale

-1.00 to -0.75Extreme risk-off-0.75 to -0.25Defensive contraction-0.25 to +0.25Neutral transition+0.25 to +0.75Constructive expansion+0.75 to +1.00Full risk-on

MRPI scale

Negative MRPI readings indicate tightening pressure in the 10-year backdrop. Positive readings indicate easing pressure. MRPI should not be labeled risk-on or risk-off.

03 / Data

Inputs and market feeds

Core crypto inputs reference broad crypto market capitalization, TOTAL2, and Bitcoin. A link-shared Google workbook supplies normalized model summaries, relative-strength states, asset-model coverage, and the dated observations already present in the MTPI and LTPI forward-testing tabs. NSPI is derived as the mean of the current MTPI and LTPI readings.

MRPI remains a separate weekly 10-year Treasury system. Its link-shared Weekly LPI workbook publishes the composite, six TNX criteria, and dated backtest observations; blank future rows are excluded until a score is present. The Terminal displays CoinGecko and Federal Reserve Economic Data for context; those public feeds are not represented as the calculation feed behind a model score.

04 / Limitations

What the models do not promise

  • Scores are state indicators, not forecasts or guarantees.
  • Google Sheets values can be delayed, revised, unavailable, or affected by workbook formula errors.
  • Missing dates and model transitions are not reconstructed or backfilled.
  • Relative-strength tabs currently provide normalized state summaries, not historical ratio-price charts.
  • Score history alone cannot produce return, alpha, Sharpe, or drawdown statistics; an aligned benchmark series is required.
05 / Version history

Public model register

AQ Core v0.3August 10, 2026

Read-only MRPI system ingestion, six-criterion verification, dated MRPI backtesting, and tightening/easing regime thresholds.

AQ Core v0.2August 10, 2026

Read-only Google Sheets ingestion across all 15 crypto workbook tabs, automated MTPI and LTPI publication, transparent NSPI derivation, relative-strength normalization, and verified score diagnostics.

AQ Core v0.1August 10, 2026

Initial public methodology release covering MTPI, LTPI, NSPI, MRPI, separate interpretation scales, and the manual fallback snapshot.